Predicts heavy rains for Onam in Kerala

There’s an old saying, Atham karuthal, Onam velukkum (If it rains on Atham, then Onam could be a clear skies). But the weather department has predicted a wet weather with heavy rains in several parts of the state.

Fishermen have been warned against go into the sea as heavy rains are likely to hit across the state.

“The monsoon has come into an active phase again. Normally September gets 12 percent rains in the south west monsoon,” said K Santosh Kumar, director, Indian meteorological department, Thiruvananthapuram.

As it reaches the tail-end of the season, Kerala has already received seven percent excess rainfall this month in the last couple of days. “Though we started with a 31 percent in June, by July the deficiency was down to seven percent.

The August rainfall was in excess of 74 percent,” said senior atmospheric scientist P V Joseph.

He said that last year, June had-34 percent excess, July- 14 percent and August had 12 percent deficiency.

While the monsoon has an active- break (weak) cycle with an average of 40 days, this year, there has been no major break phase, said Santosh Kumar.

Across the country, monsoon was weak in June till mid-July. “We have had two active phases till now. It was active from July 14- 7 August, monsoon was active over India reducing the deficiency to 18 percent. The second active phase began on August 30 and it will continue for next 2-3 weeks. With good rainfall from August 30- Sep 2, the rain deficiency over India has come down to 16 percent and we hope that by the end of September the deficiencies will come down further to a figure less than 10 percent,” Joseph said.

“In El Nino years the cycle is longer and 2014 is a year like that. We expect only two active – break cycles this year and not three as in normal years. In active spells there will be passage of low pressure systems and depressions across north India boosting monsoon rain potential of India.

The only cause for concern in this monsoon has been that two main meteorological subdivisions of Punjab and Haryana which are the major regions which produce the majority of our agricultural produce, said National institute of oceanography senior scientist M R Ramesh Kumar.

He said that one of the reasons for the revival of the monsoon this year, is that the number of convective systems over the Northwest Pacific Ocean during this monsoon season were substantially less and no new systems formed over the Bay of Bengal, which in turn helped the monsoon to be active over the Indian subcontinent.